Have you noticed that we know enough about the dynamics of weather systems, such as hurricanes, that we can predict their behavior?  Like hurricanes, we understand enough about the dynamics of human systems, such as individuals, that we can predict their behavior.  In fact we can even account for some of the variation in their behavior - just like the projected cone shaped path of a hurricane.

However, the accuracy of our predictions of the behavior of any given individual is dependent on that individual being isolated from external forces.  That’s because variation of behavior has two sources.  The variation that occurs in isolation, which is due to causes within the individual and is called common cause variation; and the variation that occurs with interaction with the outside world and is called special cause variation.  This part we cannot predict.  When a predictable individual interacts with another predictable individual, collectively they become unpredictable.

We have been studying and quickly learning about the dynamics of larger human systems commonly called groups and the ideologies that guide their behavior.  We have known for some time that personality greatly influences individuals in isolation and we now know that culture is what influences group behavior.  Like the personality of the individual, culture does not change from the outside in; it evolves from the inside out.  The transition and transformation of a human system is a response to changes in the environment.  In the cases of both personality and culture, if the environment is maintained by delusion, no change is perceived and no transition will begin.